Market Commentary

Updated on October 28, 2020 10:07:59 AM EDT

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release this morning, but we do have the 5-year Treasury Note auction to watch this afternoon. If the sale is met with a strong demand from investors, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to improvements in mortgage rates this afternoon. If there is a reaction, it will come shortly after results of the sale are posted at 1:00 PM ET.

Tomorrow has two economic releases that are likely to influence mortgage rates, one of which is considered to be a key piece of data. That would be the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. Accordingly, it is likely to have a big impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart. tomorrow's release is the first version and usually has the biggest influence on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for the GDP to have rebounded from the pandemic shutdown at an annual rate of 30% during the July through September months. Good news for mortgage rates would be a much smaller increase. However, a stronger than expected economy could lead to a rally in stocks, bond selling and a noticeable increase in mortgage pricing tomorrow.

The second release of the day will be last week's unemployment figures that are expected to show 780,000 new claims for benefits were filed during the week. That would be a decline from the previous week's 787,000 initial filings, indicating the employment sector improved slightly. The higher the number of new filings, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2020

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