April's Personal Income and Outlays data kicked off today's activities at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 10.5% jump in income and a 13.6% decline in spending. The income reading was considerably higher than expected, but that figure is believed to be skewed by the many lower paid workers that are currently out of work. A large decline in spending does not come as a surprise due to the pandemic and tens of millions of jobs lost during it. However, it is the largest monthly decline on record. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and the drop was slightly bigger than forecasts, we can consider the news favorable for mortgage rates.
The University of Michigan's revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for May was posted at 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 72.3, indicating that surveyed consumers were a little less confident in their own financial situations than previously thought. Since consumer sentiment is a gauge of consumer willingness to spend, we can consider today's reading slightly favorable but not enough to cause a movement in rates.
We also have a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Powell later this morning to watch. He will be participating in a webcast affiliated with Princeton University at 11:00 AM ET. His words likely will not cause much movement in the markets since he has spoken publicly several times recently. That said, market participants will be listening for any surprises regarding monetary policy or the future of the economy.
Next week does not have a large number of economic releases set for release, but most of what is scheduled is highly relevant to the markets. It starts with May's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index late Monday morning and concludes with the almighty monthly Employment report for May early Friday morning. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
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